March Recap
If there's one word to define 2025 so far, it’s UNCERTAINTY. Many buyers remain on the fence, hesitant to transact. With new tariffs announced, a Bank of Canada rate decision coming on April 16th, and a federal election set for the 28th, it’s no surprise some are waiting things out.
Greater Vancouver recorded 2,091 home sales in March, a 13% decline from the 2,415 sales in March 2024. However, sales rose 13% from February. At the same time, inventory surged 34% year-over-year, reaching 13,973 active listings. This puts us at a 15% sales-to-active listings ratio—right in balanced market territory.
Chart showing the level of economic policy uncertainty. Source: MLI Institue
Are We Heading Into A Real Estate Crisis?
Charts like the one pictured above are floating all over social media. How they determined this dubious metric is beyond me, but it does seem to reflect the current uncertainty about our economic future. Real estate—the biggest purchase most people will make—thrives on one major ingredient that’s been in short supply: stability.
Economic stability fuels a healthy real estate market because it provides confidence. Without it, buyers and sellers worry about job security, overpaying for a property, inflationary pressures and more. Despite the uncertainty, Greater Vancouver remains in a balanced market (15% sales-to-active listings ratio), while the Fraser Valley sits in a strong buyers’ market (13%).
Additionally, dropping rates have taken the pressure off of many home owners who've been struggling with ballooning variable-rate payments and worries about fixed-rate renewals has eased. Although there has been an uptick in mortgage arrears, Canada still ranks among the lowest in developed countries. Headlines such as "Canada's mortgage arrears creep back to record pandemic levels" make it sound like we're on the brink of economic collapse. However, a 0.04% increase on a 0.18% arrears rate is hardly a sign of economic doom!
Current Mortgage Rates Courtesy of Pinsky Mortgages
Opportunities
Looking on the bright side, with the reduction of the typical springtime buyers comes an opportunity for those bold enough to enter the market.
Lower Rates: With a shaky economy comes lower lending rates. We're now seeing uninsured 5-year fixed mortgage rates as low as 3.99%, a big drop from the nearly 6% peak during rate hikes—a prime chance for first-time buyers!
Incredible Selection: March 2025 saw 34% more homes on the market than the previous year. In fact, you’d have to go back to 2014 to find this much inventory during the same month— another golden opportunity for first-time buyers.
Pre-Election Carrots: With elections just around the corner, both the Conservatives and the Liberals are offering to cut GST on newly built homes. As of the time of writing, Conservatives are offering to "axe the tax" on newly built homes up to $1.3 mill for all homebuyers while the Liberals are offering a cut up to $1 mill for first time buyers. @firsttimebuyers, you seeing a trend here?
Upsizers & Downsizers:This is a prime market for those looking to move up or down, especially townhouse owners. Townhouses remain the most sought-after housing type and are selling fast, giving owners an opportunity to capitalize on the slower detached market. Downsizers can free-up their substantial equity while reducing maintenance and paving the way for early retirement.
Final Thoughts
The current market isn't about boom or bust—it’s about adaptability. While some are waiting for certainty, others recognize that sometimes the best opportunities arise in moments of hesitation. History has shown that those who move when others hold back often see the greatest rewards. The question isn’t just “Is this the right time?”—it’s “Will you look back and wish you had taken action?”
